Increased activity appeared today on our website ... people searching for Macromedia+Eclipse started to appear. Searching the blogosphere showed us why ... Macromedia just released a new platform for rich Internet applications. It seems that Macromedia has jumped with all its forces in the battle against Avalon, by creating a completely new and solid server-side platform (Flash Platform ), with a rock-solid IDE (Zorn - I don't have insight details, but we DO expect it to be a rock solid IDE), and with an ubiquitous client (Flash player - Maelstrom).

Things are getting hot, and I foresee a new battle of the giants in the future. The old Browser battle will move slowly to the "new XML language based platform" for building Rich Internet (or Desktop) Applications. Let's list the contestants:

• In the Red corner, there's Microsoft - working hard to release their Avalon framework
• Their goal: World domination (well, they actually are there already, but want to stay :)
• How?: Opening their standards, they will have people that are open to the open source movement have another reason not to use open source.
• The new Word file format is XML
• The new Avalon UI description language is XML
• The new .NET 2.0 is XML (actually, it's a tag based language, still pretty much similar to XML)
• They also invest a lot in research, so naturally they have pretty complex software platforms (sometimes not what developers want, like .NET, but still complex) 
• In the Blue corner, there's Adobe/Macromedia with the new Flash Platform
• Their goal: Challenge the world domination
• How?: Use the Flash player as an entry in the browser to get people independent of Microsoft OS when building applications.
• In the Hot corner, there's Google - with their Ajax skills over the FireFox branch (Gbrowser) built with the newly acquired Mozilla know-how
• Their goal: Challenge the world domination
• How?: getting people off the operating system paradigm and have them store all over the Internet and never needing an operating system anymore.
• People might still use some OpenOffice firefox extensions, but I can imagine something like - ... Booting FireFox 2010.
• In the Green corner, there are is Sun with Swing - pretty much dead before being born
• Their goal: don't disappear completely in the client section
• Some might argue that Eclipse has recently become a platform for rich desktopn applications, I don't really feel this right
• Several other XML based platforms appeared - Xamlon and OpenLaszlo to name a few.
• Their goal: survive near the big battle
• How?: add some productivity features, be compatible with one of the big names
• The Mozilla XUL stands aside, he is the originator of all declarative languages User Interfaces.
• It is not actually involved in the battle, but might play a role in Google's camp

What is the recipe for success for each of these companies?

• Microsoft: build a platform (Avalon), build development tools (Visual Studio), build some products on the platform (Office?), have some partners build some killer apps with these tools (samples abound)
• MacroAdobe: build a platform (Flex), build some development tools (Zorn), have some partners build some killer apps with these tools (not yet). Try to get people away from "Microsoft only", try to get people away from HTML.
• Google: build a proprietary platforms only they can use (www.google.com), build some killer apps themselves (http://maps.google.com, AdWords, AdSense). Try to get people away from OS dependency.
• Xamlon: build a platform that supports the rest of the platforms (Xamlon) - get people convinced that they are better than the originals (or cheaper). And try to beat Microsoft :) And fighting Microsoft and loosing is a well-known-story - http://news.com.com/Swimming+with+sharks/2009-1023_3-238221.html.
• OpenLaszlo: build a platform (Laszlo), try to sell it, see that "they can't compete with Macromedia", make it free, hope to live from consulting services (and also get IBM as a partner)

Will these companies fail in getting Microsoft position? Chances are that they some will... Because they don't respect one major rule of the platform builders. Make the platform free. As Joel says, http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/Platforms.html, platforms HAVE TO BE free in order to spread. However, for some reasons, these companies don't respect this basic rule (of course, a free platform makes it harder to get approval from the management, as free platforms don't produce real money). Moreover, most of these companies don't have enough killer apps for the platform to make it ubiquitous (except for Google and Microsoft).

• MacroAdobe sells Flex for $12.000 (or so). The Flash player is free. But this won't get their server platform embraced by those developers that should build a real killer application.
• Advice: make the Flash platform free. Find more partners build real-life killer apps. Make the player faster (I've seen maelstrom, it's a good progress).
• OpenLazlo is free. Because nobody would pay for it. At least - it has a chance with IBM on his side.
• Advice: apply for the RIA declarative UI standard. ECMAScript it or something.
• Google is free. For most of its web applications. But still gets lots of money from people that want to pay them (we have a significant GoogleAds budget - but we love to pay these money as our message gets to the customer needing to hear it).
• Advice: fight with Microsoft with all your power. I am still looking for a replacement of my Outlook/X1 pair. Google desktop is bad (compared to X1). Google Web Accelerator is bad.
• Xamlon is $399. They have something free.
• Advice: don't fight Microsoft :)

That's my view on the matter (others see the same battle heating up) - I hope that some standard will soon appear for Rich Internet Applications that we can embrace. I am not here to choose a winner, history will decide by itself :). But I need to make some decisions fast.

Alexandru